Electrical manufacturers remained relatively confident in business conditions in September, according to the latest Electroindustry Business Confidence survey published by the National Electrical Manufacturers Association (NEMA), Rosslyn, Va.

According to the EBCI survey, current conditions in North America remained essentially unchanged from August, edging down by less than one point to 56.3 in September. Respondents also remain relatively optimistic regarding future conditions in North America, but the 58.3 EBCI Index for future conditions actually reflects an erosion in confidence for early in 2005 compared to earlier in the year. A reading above 50 indicates conditions are favorable for growth.

Respondents were actually more bullish about future business in international markets, as the EBCI indexes for Latin America, Europe and Asia/Pacific were all more than 60.

Some respondents were concerned about raw material prices, but prices for steel, copper and other materials didn't seem to concern EBCI respondents as much as they did earlier in the year. Although the future conditions index scores for all regions tracked by the EBCI remained in the expansion range, panel members did not appear particularly upbeat about the business environment in six months. Some manufacturers say uncertainty over electrical market business conditions will only be alleviated after the U.S. presidential election. Other respondents had additional concerns.

Said one manufacturer, “Things are steady, but real growth is slowing. The long anticipated pick-up in commercial construction does not appear to be materializing. Alan Greenspan better get his head on straight and get back to a stimulating mode, or 2005 could be tough.”

Another EBCI respondent looked at past economic cycles to discern future business conditions. “Six months from now, the industry will be in the second year of recovery. Traditionally, the second year is stronger than the first. It will be interesting to see if that's the case this time around.

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