Despite the rocky road many electrical distributors traveled this last year, those participating in Electrical Wholesaling's annual market-planning survey forecast slow-but-steady sales growth for 2003. Nationally, electrical distributors are looking for a 5.8 percent sales increase in 2003, putting total sales through this channel at $76.35 billion.
The most optimistic distributors are in the South Atlantic and Pacific regions. The South Atlantic region's electrical distributors forecast a 7.8 percent increase in sales to $12.32 billion. In the Pacific region electrical distributors are forecasting $15.25 billion in sales, a 7.2 percent increase.
When electrical distributors were surveyed in August 2001 for their 2002 sales forecast, which appeared in last year's Market Planning Guide, they were a bit too bullish compared to the survey responses that came in two months ago for the 2003 forecast. When surveyed last year, electrical distributors had expected 2002 to be a much better business year. Now electrical distributors' sales for 2002 are expected to total $72.16 billion.
Respondents to the survey reported an average sales-per-employee number of $326,400 for 2001. That number was a long way off from $523,765, which is the average 2001 sales-per-employee number reported by 189 distributors who furnished both a sales figure and employee count to our 250 Biggest survey last spring. Still, the much larger dollar figure among the 250 Biggest electrical distributors can perhaps be explained in part by the many electrical distributors that have reduced personnel. The employee count among the 250 Biggest was down more 6,500 people from 2000 to 2001.
ELECTRICAL WHOLESALERS' SALES (in millions of dollars)
EW Estimates
Final 1998
Final 1999
Final 2000
Final 2001
Forecast 2002
Forecast 2003
New England
4,158.2
4,348.9
4,575.8
4,250.1
4,023.6
4,189.5
Middle Atlantic
10,112.3
10,683.3
11,049.8
10,571.3
10,463.2
11,145.8
East North Central
11,891.6
12,613.3
12,720.1
12,080.6
11,944.9
12,485.3
West North Central
3,480.0
3,819.3
3,768.2
3,657.6
3,719.1
3,887.3
South Atlantic
10,676.0
11,455.5
11,689.1
11,450.6
11,425.2
12,319.2
East South Central
3,376.2
3,691.4
3,730.0
3,386.6
3,487.6
3,641.9
West South Central
7,495.2
8,321.0
8,474.2
8,588.1
8,680.9
9,056.2
Mountain
3,420.7
3,632.6
3,869.1
4,260.0
4,199.4
4,376.8
Pacific
11,233.6
12,733.2
14,131.5
14,208.8
14,220.1
15,247.4
Nation
65,843.8
71,298.5
74,007.9
72,453.7
72,163.9
76,349.4
DISTRIBUTORS' FORECASTS FOR MAJOR BUSINESS SECTORS FOR 2003 (average percent change over 2002)
Residential
Industrial
Commercial
Institutional
Government
Utilities
New England
4.3%
-9.1%
-4.4%
-0.5%
-4.0%
0.0%
Middle Atlantic
-0.1%
-2.4%
-0.6%
0.3%
1.8%
-0.6%
East North Central
0.3%
-2.3%
-0.9%
-0.1%
-0.2%
-2.6%
West North Central
6.2%
-4.9%
3.5%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.0%
South Atlantic
7.6%
-2.8%
1.7%
-1.0%
0.1%
2.0%
East South Central
1.1%
-6.0%
-1.9%
-0.9%
5.0%
-1.7%
West South Central
1.1%
-1.7%
1.9%
0.0%
0.0%
-1.6%
Mountain
1.0%
1.8%
-2.5%
0.7%
2.0%
-2.0%
Pacific
1.9%
-4.3%
-1.6%
1.6%
0.3%
0.5%
Multi-Region Companies
0.3%
1.5%
-1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
2.6%
National
2.3%
-2.5%
-0.6%
0.2%
0.7%
-0.1%
EMPLOYMENT STATISTICS
in thousands
Actual EC
M
F/S/RT
G
New England
40,500
937.7
4,201.2
982.2
Middle Atlantic
110,497
2,086.5
10,690.2
2,843.0
East North Central
132,047
4,012.4
11,547.0
3,127.1
West North Central
57,695
1,405.0
5,217.1
1,650.2
South Atlantic
171,098
2,677.3
14,005.6
4,028.3
East South Central
43,153
1,304.5
3,766.0
1,296.1
West South Central
99,459
1,590.5
7,378.6
2,462.4
Mountain
65,688
694.6
4,846.9
1,501.6
Pacific
123,355
2,397.2
10,824.2
3,494.6
Nation
843,491
17,105.7
72,476.8
21,385.5
KEY/LEGEND
NA — Not available MSA — Metropolitan Statistical Area PMSA — Primary Metropolitan Statistical Area CMSA — Consolidated Metropolitan Statistical Area EC — Electrical contractor employees. Actual numbers. M — Manufacturing employees in thousands. F/S/RT — Commercial accounts (finance, services, retail trade) employees in thousands. G — Government employees in thousands.
