The U.S. economy is set to move up a few notches in 2004, according to the latest economic forecast from the Portland Cement Association (PCA), Skokie, Ill.; however, the PCA does not expect robust construction activity to arrive until 2005. The optimistic outlook arrives courtesy of recent improvements in U.S. labor markets.

Chief economist Edward Sullivan explains, “The seemingly contradictory outlook is based on the prospects of cooling single-family construction under the weight of rising interest rates, a delayed and muted improvement in commercial construction activity, and a public construction sector still coping with state-level fiscal crises.”

PCA reports the emerging economic recovery will create jobs, escalate wage gains, and lead to stronger capital gains. Combined, these factors will strengthen states' tax base, resulting in a gradual easing of fiscal stress. PCA projects 2.7 to 3.0 percent growth in cement consumption for 2005-2008.

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