Respondents were brutally realistic about when they thought the recession would end. When asked, “How long do you think the recession will last?,” 46 distributors said they thought it would end within one year. The other responses were evenly split: end of 2009 (17); 18 months (24); two years (12); and two years or more (22) (see chart on this page).

While it's oh-so-easy to get caught up in all the economic gloom-and-doom, some Top 200 distributors are already have some reasons to be cheerful. Said American Electric's Mike Pratt, “We are expecting a gradual rebound in the California economy starting late third quarter 2009 and a full recovery by the first quarter of 2011. We are anticipating around a 12-percent decrease from our sales in 2008 compared to 2009.

“The indicators that we have seen starting in late March through April 2009 have been two-fold: 1) public work jobs are bidding and not only being awarded but the projects are starting off at a quick pace. 2) We are seeing an active market in the energy retrofit market even with the economic downturn on the private commercial level.”

CBT's Alex Kepley said his company had a strong start in 2008 compared to 2007, but then experienced a fairly significant slowdown, particularly in the third and fourth quarter “post-Lehman bankruptcy and credit market freeze.” He doesn't expect any growth until this year's fourth-quarter, but is already seeing some signs of economic life. “We are already seeing it as quote activity has increased, major customers are beginning to explore some capital projects, and our OEMs are also seeing an uptick in quoting work.”

Doug Bemis, president, Caniff Electric Supply Hamtramck, Mich., is bracing himself for a 2009 sales decline of at least 30 percent and is watching for an increase in the number of jobs his company quotes as an early indicator. He is also seeing some business improvement. “Business is improving now, but very slowly,” he said. “I expect to be back to prior levels by the second quarter of 2010,” he said. Continue reading...

Want to use this article? Click here for options!
© 2007 Penton Media, Inc.